By Milt Vine
The sky is falling, the sky is falling. Or so they say.
Yep, it's another instance of forecasted doom and gloom, all the experts telling us that in the year 2000, a mere fifteen months away, computer systems will crash and the world will stop. In fact, I just read that the Federal Reserve has ordered the pr inting of additional on-hand currency in anticipation of bank withdrawals by customers afraid their money will disappear down the Y2K black hole.
We've probably all heard about these predictions, even if only casually. After all, the issue even has its own little abbreviation, Y2K, as if it's a sequel to a slasher movie. Unfortunately, many say that a horror flick might be much less scary than w hat's going to happen.
On the other hand, there are those who consider themselves voices of reason and assure us that we're all being spooked on purpose by companies selling Y2K solutions. These companies, the reasoning goes, are simply exaggerating the problem to attract cu stomers for books, services or seminars, and the press, wanting a story, has helped their cause unwittingly.
So, who are we to believe, and more importantly, what should we do?
The Basics. Quick! What year was the first car you bought? If you answered in the double-digits '73 Chevy, instead of a 1973 Chevy you just identified the problem. Back in the '60s and '70s, the expense of computer memory required that programs and data take up minimal space. Therefore, years were entered as two digits, i.e., 72 for 1972, dropping the 19 forever. And when we reach the year 2000, or 00, it will be considered a ninety-nine year jump into the past by computers still using this syst em.
Such computers are not rare. With each new leap of technology, most computer networks have been built on to original systems, enveloping them and their practices. That's certainly a reasonable move, considering that replacing entire systems with every update would be cost-prohibitive. But the practice has also turned cost-cutting measures of the past into our potential billion-dollar problem of the present.
The Argument. The question is just how big a problem do we actually have. The Internet's Small Business Advisor tells us to expect all business checks to be returned, all reservations to be cancelled, telephone bills totaling tens of thousands o f dollars, endless overdue payment notices, incorrect credit card bills, vaults that won't open at the bank, stopped elevators, etc.
That all sounds like total chaos to me, and it's not only Internet sites which have weighed in with such dire warnings. It would be difficult to find a single member of the mainstream media that hasn't offered a similar version of the future.
But a major regional daily's Internet columnist Rebecca L. Eisenberg believes otherwise. "Steer clear," she advises in an article entitled 'Year 2000 Hype is Relentless.' She writes, "As the great F. D. Roosevelt once cautioned, speaking of a different matter, the biggest fear with the Y2K problem is fear itself."
Internet columnist Eisenberg quotes several researchers who agree, and provides plenty of examples of companies who, for instance, want to sell a 12-page report about the impact of the Y2K problem for $795 each. And, even though she admits that 'under the hype lies a genuine grain of truth,' she still maintains that 'there isn't much most of us can do.'
"It's like being in an airplane," one of the article's analysts explains. "You can tell the pilot to fly the plane . . . but you can't stick your arms out the window and flap if the plane starts to go down."
True enough, but I guess the CPA in me comes out at that point, and CPAs believe in planning ahead and knowing contingencies.
I believe our industry can be severely affected, if we don't address some issues right now. While I'm relatively confident large suppliers, like paper companies, will have taken steps to ameliorate the impact, second-tier providers ink houses, plate ma nufacturers, etc. may be less likely to deal with the issue, which could put us in a very vulnerable position.
The Choices. So I continue my research, checking out my options. And, as is often the case, it seems the wisest approach to the problem is probably somewhere between choice a) simply hoping for the best, and choice z) breaking the budget with co nsultants and services.
So, in my situation, a reasonable plan might include these five points:
- Inventory hardware and software: The first step is identification.
- Assess readiness: Contact vendors of each product identified in the first step. Adobe (www.adobe.com) offers an excellent example of how most software vendors have prepared. At their site, you can check lists of products with readiness information on each. Most vendors whose products are affected offer downloadable patches or upgrades.
- Fix, and test the fixes: It pays to be careful.
- Determine supplier readiness: Key suppliers can affect operations on this end. They need to be ready as well.
- Help educate customers: Knowledge adds value to our services and is always appreciated.
Some good websites offering Y2K advice include www.sba.gov.Y2K; www.itaa.org; and www.year2000.com, put up by a company in the U.K., the country which is leading the Y2K charge.
If we're confident we have taken all prudent action, I suppose the next step is to wait and see . . . and hope it's more hype than horror.
Milt Vine is president of Seattle Bindery, a postpress house specializing in custom
tabs and presentation folders; folding and stitching; foil stamping, embossing and
diecutting; plastic spiral, Wire-Oš and perfect binding. You can reach Milt at 206/68
2-2558.
© 1998, Seattle Bindery. Reprinted from Printing Journal, October 1998.